How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Club America to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Club America and 0.9 from Atl. San Luis, so Club America come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Atl. San Luis come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club America to win. Club America are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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