What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Club America and 0.9 from Atl. San Luis, so Club America come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Atl. San Luis come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club America to win. Club America are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Atl. San Luis a draw or better. We make it about 62% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
