What to expect
We expect about 2.6 goals from Cruz Azul and 1.0 from Juarez, so Cruz Azul come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Cruz Azul come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cruz Azul to win. Cruz Azul are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-1.0), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cruz Azul have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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