How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Monterrey (Draw No Bet) 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Monterrey and 1.2 from Atl. San Luis, so Monterrey come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Monterrey (Draw No Bet). Monterrey are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Monterrey defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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