How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Necaxa to score 1 or fewer 80%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Pachuca and 0.9 from Necaxa, so Pachuca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Necaxa come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Necaxa to score 1 or fewer. This is about Necaxa's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 80%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Pachuca have won five of the last five meetings.
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