What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Tigres UANL and 0.9 from Club Leon, so Tigres UANL come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Club Leon to score 1 or fewer. This is about Club Leon's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Tigres UANL have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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