What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 1.0 from Necaxa, so Guadalajara Chivas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Guadalajara Chivas come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guadalajara Chivas to win. Guadalajara Chivas are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.0), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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