How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Toluca or Draw 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Tigres UANL and 1.3 from Toluca, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Toluca or Draw. This covers Toluca or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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