What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Toluca and 1.1 from Club Tijuana, so Toluca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Club Tijuana come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Toluca to win. Toluca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Toluca have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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