What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Toluca and 1.3 from Monterrey, so Toluca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Toluca come into this on five straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Toluca to win. Toluca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.3), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Toluca have won four of the last five meetings.
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