How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made UNAM Pumas (Draw No Bet) 76%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from UNAM Pumas and 1.0 from Necaxa, so UNAM Pumas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Necaxa come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: UNAM Pumas (Draw No Bet). UNAM Pumas are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a UNAM Pumas defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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