What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Angers and 1.3 from Lille, so Lille come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Angers come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lille to win. Lille shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.3), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Angers a draw or better. We make it about 56% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
