How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Lille and 1.4 from Paris SG, so Paris SG come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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