How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Lorient to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Lorient and 1.0 from Troyes, so Lorient come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lorient to win. Lorient are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.0), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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