How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Lille to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Lille and 0.9 from Troyes, so Lille come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Lille to win. Lille are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.9), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lille have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
