How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Lyon to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lyon and 0.9 from Le Havre, so Lyon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lyon to win. Lyon are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
