What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Monaco and 1.3 from Lille, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Monaco are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Lille have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
10 May 2026Monaco 0 - 1 Lille
24 Aug 2025Lille 1 - 0 Monaco
22 Feb 2025Lille 2 - 1 Monaco
18 Oct 2024Monaco 0 - 0 Lille
24 Apr 2024Monaco 1 - 0 Lille
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