How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Over 1.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly open. Our numbers put Paris FC at about 1.6 goals and Nice at 1.0, so we expect roughly 2.6 goals in total. Paris FC are the stronger side on those figures, but the gap isn’t huge. With a little work from either team the total can easily pass the 1.5-goal mark.
Both clubs have been low-scoring lately. Paris FC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league games. Nice have not won any of their last five, drawing four and losing one, and they are coming in on two straight draws. In their last two meetings Paris FC have the edge with one win and one draw, and those games have averaged 1.5 goals. The most recent meeting was a 1-0 win for Paris FC in March.
We pick Over 1.5 goals. The price of 1.33 matches our view of the game. With an expected 2.6 goals, reaching two goals is enough and should happen about three-quarters of the time according to our calculations.
It would have to be a very tight, defensive night for the pick to fail. That would mean both sides keep a clean sheet or only a single goal is scored. Given the recent draw-heavy form of Nice and the modest scoring expectation for Paris FC, we feel the risk is low and we hold our view strongly.
Recent meetings
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