What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Toulouse and 1.4 from Lyon, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lyon to win. Lyon shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.4), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.54, which works out at about 39 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Toulouse to spoil this. We make it about 37% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
