What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Troyes and 1.4 from Paris FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.4-1.4), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 45%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.61, which works out at about 28 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. We only make this about 45%, so it's far from a lock.
