What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Annecy and 1.2 from Metz, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Metz come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. We make it about 71% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
