How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Guingamp and 1.1 from Nantes, so Guingamp come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nantes come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.1 goals (xG 2.0-1.1) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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