How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Dunkerque and 1.3 from Montpellier, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.3), keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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