How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Pau FC and 1.4 from Nancy, so Pau FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.4), landing about 75% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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