How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Montpellier look the stronger side on paper. The goal expectations are 1.4 for them and 0.7 for Boulogne, which points to a tight, low-scoring game. Both teams have been finding the net hard lately, so we expect few chances and a cautious approach.
In the last five league games Montpellier have won two and lost three, with no draws. They are coming off two straight wins, which shows a small bounce in confidence. Boulogne’s recent form isn’t listed, but the pattern of Montpellier’s recent results suggests they will be careful not to give away easy goals.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The price is 1.32, which is longer than what we see in the match, so it looks attractive. We think the game will finish around 2.1 goals total, matching the expected 1.4 to 0.7 split, and the under should hit about 80 % of the time.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals – perhaps a set-piece or a defensive mistake that leads to a quick double. That would be unlikely given the low expectations and the cautious vibe. We are fairly strong on this view, believing the under will hold in most cases.
Recent meetings
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