What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Montpellier and 1.0 from Metz, so Montpellier come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Montpellier come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Metz to score 1 or fewer. This is about Metz's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Montpellier have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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