How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Metz to score 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Red Star and 1.5 from Metz, so Metz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Metz to score. This is about Metz's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Red Star have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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