What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Red Star and 1.3 from Metz, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.1-1.3), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Red Star have won two of their last five.
✓Metz are unbeaten in their last five — one win and four draws.
Recent meetings
19 Apr 2025Metz 2 - 2 Red Star
29 Oct 2024Red Star 1 - 0 Metz
