How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made FK Kauno Žalgiris to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Hegelmann and 1.7 from FK Kauno Žalgiris, so FK Kauno Žalgiris come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hegelmann come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Kauno Žalgiris to win. FK Kauno Žalgiris shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FK Kauno Žalgiris have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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