How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FC Differdange 03 to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from FC Differdange 03 and 1.0 from F91 Dudelange, so FC Differdange 03 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FC Differdange 03 come into this on five straight wins. F91 Dudelange come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Differdange 03 to win. FC Differdange 03 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.0), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FC Differdange 03 have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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