What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from US Hostert and 2.3 from F91 Dudelange, so F91 Dudelange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: F91 Dudelange to win. F91 Dudelange shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-2.3), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓F91 Dudelange have won two of their last five.
