How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Una Strassen to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from US Hostert and 2.1 from Una Strassen, so Una Strassen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
US Hostert come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Una Strassen to win. Una Strassen shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.1), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Una Strassen have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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