What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from US Rumelange and 2.6 from US Mondorf les Bains, so US Mondorf les Bains come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
US Rumelange come into this on two straight defeats. US Mondorf les Bains come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: US Mondorf les Bains to win. US Mondorf les Bains shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.6), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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