How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Sabah to win 58%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sabah and 1.1 from Brunei DPMM, so Sabah come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sabah to win. Sabah are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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