How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Sabah (Draw No Bet) 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Sabah and 1.0 from Penang, so Sabah come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sabah (Draw No Bet). Sabah are favoured here (xG 1.7-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Sabah defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Penang win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. The price is shorter than our own read of about 71%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.