How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 2.5 goals 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Colorado Rapids and 1.0 from CF Montreal, so Colorado Rapids come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CF Montreal come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.0), landing about 58% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Colorado Rapids have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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