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Football/MLS/San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City
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San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City prediction

San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose EarthquakesLWLDL
v
St. Louis City crestSt. Louis CityWWWDD

What to expect

We expect about 2.0 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.3 from St. Louis City, so San Jose Earthquakes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

St. Louis City come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.0-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
San Jose Earthquakes have won one of their last five.
St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

26 Apr 2026St. Louis City 2 - 3 San Jose Earthquakes
21 Sept 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 3 St. Louis City
31 May 2025St. Louis City 2 - 1 San Jose Earthquakes
22 Sept 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 2 St. Louis City
4 Jul 2024St. Louis City 2 - 0 San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City have won four of the last five meetings.

One thing to watch

If one attack goes missing for the night, both teams scoring falls flat. The price is shorter than our own read of about 60%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.

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