How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Aldershot to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Aldershot and 1.1 from Gateshead, so Aldershot come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aldershot come into this on two straight defeats. Gateshead come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aldershot to win. Aldershot are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Aldershot have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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