Altrincham v Kidderminster: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Altrincham host Kidderminster at home in a National League clash on 27 October 2026. Altrincham sit fifth in the 24-team table with 27 points from 14 games and a +2 goal difference, just one place above Worthing and two points clear of Yeovil Town. Kidderminster are mid-table in 12th place, also on 20 points from 14 games and a +2 goal difference, level with Carlisle United above them and two points ahead of Woking below. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but Altrincham have more to play for in the race for the promotion spots, while Kidderminster are trying to climb back into the top half.

Altrincham have been in fine form lately. In their last eight matches they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The most recent results are a 2-1 win away at Yeovil, a 6-2 away victory over FC United of Manchester, a goalless home draw with the same side, a 3-1 home win over Aldershot, a 3-1 away loss to Boreham Wood and a 1-0 away win at Gateshead. That run gives them 18 goals scored and eight conceded, three clean sheets and only one game without a goal. Five of those eight games have seen both sides score, and six have produced three or more goals. The team are coming into this fixture on the back of two straight wins, but they have only had three days to recover from their last match.

Kidderminster’s recent run has been more uneven. Over their last eight games they have won two, drawn three and lost three. Their latest fixtures are a 2-1 home loss to Worthing, a 2-1 home win over Solihull Moors, a 0-0 away draw with Carlisle, a 1-1 home draw with Sutton, a 3-1 away defeat at Boreham Wood and a 1-0 home loss to Yeovil. In those eight games they have scored six and let in eight, kept three clean sheets and have failed to find the net in three matches. Four of the games have featured three or more goals and both sides have scored in four of them. Like Altrincham, Kidderminster also played only three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two clubs have met twice before, with Altrincham winning once, Kidderminster once and one draw. Those meetings have produced an average of three goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 3-1 victory for Altrincham at Kidderminster on 29 March 2024. Given the recent form of both sides and the history of modest scoring, this match looks set to be a tight affair with few clear-cut chances. Both teams have shown they can keep a clean sheet, and the goal averages suggest a low-scoring contest.

We back the under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.41 is longer than our own reading of the game, but the chance of the total staying under that mark sits at 75 out of 100. The expected goal total is about 2.2, with Altrincham likely to score around 1.2 and Kidderminster about 1.1. For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals from either side – perhaps a defensive lapse or a set-piece that produces a third goal for one team. As long as both sides remain cautious, the game should stay below three and a half goals.