How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Boston Utd to win 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Boston United host Gateshead at the National League ground on 27 October. Boston sit 21st of 24 with 12 points from 14 games and a –10 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. One place above them, Tamworth are two points clear, while Scunthorpe United sit just below, also two points away. Gateshead are also fighting to stay up, having slipped to the bottom of the table after a run of seven defeats. Both clubs need points to move away from the danger zone, and the match promises a fight for survival.
Boston’s recent form has been bleak. In their last eight fixtures they have managed only one win, two draws and five losses. The most recent results, newest first, are a 4-2 loss to Eastleigh away, a 3-1 defeat by Scunthorpe United at home, a 2-1 loss to Southend at home, a 6-0 drubbing by Yeovil away, a 1-1 draw with Halifax away and a 1-0 loss to Fylde at home. That string includes four straight defeats and three games in the last week, so they arrive on a short turnaround. In those eight matches Boston have scored nine goals while conceding 19, failing to find the net in two games. Six of the fixtures featured both sides scoring, and five saw three or more goals.
Gateshead’s eight-game run is even poorer. They have not won a single match, drawing once and losing seven. Their latest results are a 4-1 loss to Halifax away, a 2-1 defeat by Worthing at home, a 1-0 loss to Altrincham at home, a 4-0 loss to Wealdstone away, a 6-1 defeat by Southend at home and a 1-0 loss to Kidderminster away. That makes seven straight defeats and four consecutive losses on the road. Gateshead have scored only four goals while conceding 23 in the same period, and they failed to score in half of those games. Their last outing was 17 days ago, giving them a longer break than Boston.
The two clubs have met four times before. Boston have won three of those meetings and Gateshead have won one, with no draws. The games have averaged 2.5 goals each. The most recent encounter was a narrow 1-0 victory for Boston on 10 February 2026. Given the recent scores and the fact that both sides tend to concede heavily, this fixture is likely to be open, with chances at both ends and a modest number of goals.
Our pick is Boston United to win. The numbers suggest Boston will score about two goals on average, while Gateshead are expected to manage just over one. The chance of Boston scoring at all is 84 %, and they have a 56 % chance of finding the net twice or more. Gateshead’s chances of scoring are lower, at 63 % overall and only 26 % for two or more goals. The price of 1.59 is shorter than our own reading, which puts Boston’s win probability at 57 %. The price therefore looks attractive. For the pick to go wrong Boston would need to be shut out while Gateshead find a goal, something that has happened only once in their recent meetings. If Boston fail to break the deadlock early, the match could slip into a low-scoring draw, but we think the odds still favour the home side.
Recent results
Boston Utd have won three of the last four meetings.
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