Eastleigh v Southend: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Eastleigh host Southall in a National League clash on 30 September 2026. Eastleigh sit 15th out of 24 with 14 points after ten games and a goal difference of minus two. Just one spot above them is FC Halifax Town, while Carlisle United sit one place below. Southend sit much higher, fourth with 20 points and a plus nine goal difference, inside the league’s promotion places. Altrincham sit one spot above Southend and AFC Fylde are level on points just below. Both sides have played their last match only four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the points on offer make the meeting important for both.

Eastleigh’s recent form has been mixed over their last eight games. They lost 4-1 away to Harrogate, then bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Carlisle. A 2-1 defeat at Sutton followed, and they drew 1-1 with Boreham Wood at home. After that they fell 2-1 away to Altrincham and then shared another 1-1 draw with Aldershot on their own turf. In those eight matches they have scored ten and let in twelve, keeping two clean sheets. At home they have been unbeaten in their last four games, winning two and drawing two, and six of those eight games have seen both sides find the net.

Southend have been more prolific in the same period, recording four wins, two draws and two defeats. Their most recent result was a 4-2 loss at home to Barrow. Before that they enjoyed two 6-1 away victories over Gateshead, a 3-1 home win over Tamworth, a 2-2 draw away at Carlisle and a 3-2 home win over Yeovil. In those eight games Southend have scored twenty-four and conceded fifteen, and every one of those matches has produced three goals or more, with both teams scoring in each game. Their four recent road outings have produced two wins and two draws, showing they can pick up points away from home.

When the two clubs meet, the history favours Southend. In the last five meetings Southend have won four times and Eastleigh only once, with no draws. Those games have averaged 2.8 goals. The most recent encounter was a 4-1 victory for Southend on 20 January 2026. Given the recent scoring trends for both sides – Eastleigh averaging just over a goal per game and Southend close to two – we can expect an open contest with chances at both ends.

Our pick is both teams to score. The chance of this happening sits at 59 per cent and the price on offer is 1.59, which is shorter than our reading of the game. The price looks good for the risk. For the pick to fail, either Eastleigh would have to keep a clean sheet or Southend would need to shut out their hosts, both of which seem unlikely given the recent goal-rich matches each side has been involved in. We expect both sides to find the net and the result to be a high-scoring affair.