How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Tamworth host Sutton at the National League on 30 September 2026. Tamworth sit 22nd of 24 with eight points from ten games and a –11 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. One point separates them from Hartlepool United above and Solihull Moors below. Sutton sit comfortably in mid-table, 11th with 17 points and a neutral goal difference. They are one point behind Hornchurch and two ahead of Barrow. Both clubs played only four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the fixture offers Tamworth a chance to climb out of the drop places and Sutton a chance to push toward the top half.
Tamworth’s recent form has been poor overall but bright at home. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn one and lost five. The most recent results are a 5-1 defeat at Aldershot, a 2-1 home win over Wealdstone, a 3-1 loss away to Southend, a 3-1 loss away to Harrogate, a 2-2 home draw with Boston United and a 3-2 loss away at Yeovil. In those eight matches they have scored 13 goals and let in 23. Every game has produced three or more goals and both sides have found the net each time. Their last three home games have been unbeaten with two wins and a draw.
Sutton have been more balanced in their last eight outings, recording three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their newest fixtures are a 3-3 home draw with Forest Green, a 1-1 away draw with Halifax, a 2-1 home win over Eastleigh, a 2-0 home loss to Scunthorpe, a 3-0 away loss to Barrow and a 2-0 home loss to Wealdstone. Across those games Sutton have scored nine and conceded thirteen. They have kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out three times. In their last three road trips they have one win, one draw and one loss, showing they can pick up points away from home.
When the two clubs have met before the games have been lively. In the last four meetings Tamworth have won twice, Sutton once and one match ended in a draw. The average total of those games is 2.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 24 January 2026 ended 0-1 in favour of Sutton. Given the history of open scoring and the similar goal expectations for this match – 1.8 for Tamworth and 1.5 for Sutton – we anticipate another match with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided affair.
Our pick is that both teams will score. The chance of this happening sits at 60 %. The price on offer is 1.52, which is shorter than we feel the game deserves, making it an attractive option. For the pick to fail, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet, which is unlikely given the recent patterns of high-scoring games and the fact that each team has scored in every match of Tamworth’s last eight and in half of Sutton’s. We expect goals at either end and a result that reflects the open nature of their recent encounters.
Recent results
Tamworth have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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