What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Southend and 1.2 from Tamworth, so Southend come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Southend to win. Southend are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.2), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Southend have won three of their last five.
✓Tamworth have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last four meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
20 Dec 2025Tamworth 2 - 1 Southend
16 Aug 2025Southend 2 - 0 Tamworth
22 Feb 2025Tamworth 1 - 1 Southend
26 Oct 2024Southend 2 - 0 Tamworth
