What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Ballymena United and 1.1 from Portadown, so Ballymena United come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ballymena United come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ballymena United to win. Ballymena United are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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