How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Ballymena United or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ballymena United host Port Adown at home in a NIFL Premiership clash on 26 September 2026. Ballymena sit ninth out of twelve with six points from seven games and a goal difference of minus one. They are already in the relegation zone, four points ahead of Carrick Rangers and level with Limavady below them. Port Adown are bottom of the table, twelfth with just one point from eight games and a goal difference of minus twelve. They sit four points behind Bangor, who are the only side above them. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the drop, so the stakes are high for each side.
Ballymena United have not won any of their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw away at Dungannon Swifts. Before that they held Carrick Rangers to a 1-1 draw at home and then lost 3-2 to Coleraine away. In those three fixtures they have scored four goals and let in five. Two of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those matches. The run ends with two straight draws, showing they can pick up points but have struggled to finish games strongly.
Port Adown have also failed to win in their last three outings. Their latest result was a 3-1 defeat away to Bangor. Prior to that they managed a 1-1 draw at home against Linfield, and earlier they lost 2-0 at home to Larne. Over those three games they have scored only two goals while conceding six. They failed to score in the loss to Larne, and two of the three matches produced three or more goals with both sides scoring in each of those high-scoring games. The side has gone three games without a win and will be looking to snap that run.
When these two teams have met before, the games have tended to be close affairs with both sides getting on the scoresheet. Given the recent form – Ballymena scoring four in three games and Port Adown only two – we expect another low-scoring encounter, perhaps a single goal for each side or a narrow win. The numbers suggest Ballymena are the stronger side, but both clubs have been leaking goals, so a draw is a realistic possibility.
Our pick is Ballymena United or a draw. The price of 1.21 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a good safety net. We think Ballymena have a 79 % chance to score and a 47 % chance to score twice, while Port Adown have a 68 % chance to find the net and a 31 % chance to score more than once. That makes a combined expectation of about 2.6 goals in the match. If Ballymena manage to keep a clean sheet or if the game ends level, our selection should succeed. It would go wrong only if Port Adown win outright, which seems unlikely given their poor recent record and the gap in goal difference.
Recent results
Portadown have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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