How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Larne to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Bangor and 2.0 from Larne, so Larne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Larne come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Larne to win. Larne shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.0), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Larne have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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