What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Larne and 0.9 from Glentoran, so Larne come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Larne (Draw No Bet). Larne are favoured here (xG 1.3-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Larne defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Larne have won two of their last five.
✓Glentoran have won one of their last three.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Glentoran win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 66%: a lean, not a lock.
