What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Linfield and 0.8 from Carrick Rangers, so Linfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Linfield to win. Linfield are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.8), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Carrick Rangers to spoil this. At around 67% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.