How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Larne to win 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Larne and 0.6 from Limavady, so Larne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Larne to win. Larne are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.6), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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