What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Cerro Porteño and 1.0 from Recoleta, so Cerro Porteño come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cerro Porteño to win. Cerro Porteño are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cerro Porteño have won five of the last five meetings.
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