How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Nacional or Draw 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Luqueño and 1.4 from Nacional, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Luqueño come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional or Draw. This covers Nacional or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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