How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Libertad to win 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.9 from Libertad, so Libertad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sportivo San Lorenzo come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Libertad to win. Libertad shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.9), and we make them about 68% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Libertad have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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