What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Nacional and 0.6 from Sportivo San Lorenzo, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.6), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Nacional have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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